There may never have been another intelligent, technologically advanced alien species in the entire history of the Universe. Last week, in the New York Times, scientist Adam Frank emphatically wrote that Yes, There Have Been Aliens, concluding that given all the potentially habitable worlds we know must be out there from our astrophysical discoveries, intelligent life must have arisen. What he fails to account for, however, is the magnitude of the unknowns that abiogenesis, evolution, long-term habitability and other factors bring into the equation. Although it’s true that there is an astronomical number of possibilities for intelligent, technologically advanced lifeforms, the huge uncertainties make it a very real possibility that humans are the only spacefaring aliens our Universe has ever known.
Back in 1961, scientist Frank Drake came up with the first equation to predict how many spacefaring civilizations there were in the Universe today. He relied on a series of unknown quantities that he could make estimates for, and ultimately arrive at how many technologically advanced alien species there were, at present, in both our galaxy and our observable Universe right now. With the advances of the last 55 years, many of those quantities we once could only estimate via guesswork can now be known to an incredible degree of precision.
For starters, our understanding of the size and scale of the Universe has increased dramatically. We now know, thanks to observations made with space-based and ground-based observatories covering the full spectrum of the electromagnetic wavelengths, how big the Universe is and how many galaxies there are within it. We have a much better understanding of star formation and how stars work, and so when we look out into the grand abyss of deep space, we can calculate how many stars there are out there in the Universe, both now and over the entire cosmic history since the Big Bang. That number is huge — somewhere close to 10^24 — and it represents the number of chances the Universe has had, over the past 13.8 billion years, to produce life like ours.
We used to wonder how many of those stars had planets around them, how many of those planets were rocky and capable of having atmospheres like our own, and how many of them were the right distances from their stars to have liquid water on their surfaces. For innumerable generations, this was something we only wondered about. But thanks to huge advances in exoplanet studies, most spectacularly with the advent of NASA’s Kepler spacecraft, we’ve learned so much about what’s out there, including that:
So adding that all up, there are more than 10^22 potentially Earth-like planets out there in the Universe, with the right conditions for life on them.
The situation is even better than that because except for the very first generations of the very first stars, practically all of them come enriched with the heavy elements and ingredients necessary for life. When we look at the interstellar medium, at molecular gas clouds, at the centers of distant galaxies, at outflows from massive stars or even at our own galaxy, we find the elements of the periodic table — carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, silicon, sulphur, phosphorous, copper, iron and more — necessary for life as we know it. When we look at meteors and asteroids in our own Solar System, we find not only these elements, but we find them configured into organic molecules like sugars, carbon rings, and even amino acids. In other words, there are not only more than 10^22 potentially Earth-like planets out there in the Universe; there are more than 10^22 potentially Earth-like planets with the right raw ingredients for life!
But that’s where our optimism if we’re being scientifically honest and scrupulous, ought to end. Because there are three big steps out there, in order to get a human-like civilization, that need to happen:
When Carl Sagan originally presented Cosmos in 1980, he claimed it was reasonable to give each of these three steps a 10% chance of succeeding. If that were correct, there would be more than 10 million intelligent, alien civilizations that have existed in the Milky Way galaxy alone!
Today, Adam Frank argues that it’s unrealistic to give these three steps a combined probability of less than 10^-22, and therefore concludes that there must have been aliens elsewhere in the Universe. But this is itself a preposterous claim, based on no evidence whatsoever. Abiogenesis may have been common; it may have occurred multiple times on Earth alone, or on Mars, Titan, Europa, Venus, Enceladus, or elsewhere even in our own Solar System. Or it may be such a rare process that even if we created a hundred clones of a young Earth — or a thousand, or a million — our world might be the only one where it occurred.
And even if life does occur, how fortunate do you need to be to have it survive and thrive for billions of years? Would a catastrophic warming scenario, like Venus, be the norm? Or a catastrophic freezing scenario, like on Mars? Or would life wind up poisoning itself out of existence most of the time, as it almost did on Earth two billion years ago? And even if you had life make it for billions of years, how often would you get something like the Cambrian explosion, where huge, multicellular, macroscopic plants, animals and fungi came to dominate a planet? It could be relatively common, where maybe 10% of attempts make it, or it could be rare, where 1-in-a-million or even 1-in-a-billion are closer to the realistic odds.
And even if you get there, how rare is a tool-using, technology-developing, rocket ship-launching species like a human? Complex reptiles, birds and mammals that could be considered intelligent by many metrics have been around for tens to hundreds of millions of years, but modern humans came about less than one million years ago, and we only became what we’d consider “technologically advanced” in the last century or two. Is there a 10% chance that if you make it through the previous step, you get to a spacefaring civilization? Or is that more like one-in-a-thousand, one-in-a-million, one-in-a-trillion or even worse?
The truth of the matter is, this: we don’t know. We know the Universe gives intelligent life a very large number of chances, on the order of 10^22. And we know that there’s only a small probability of going from a chance at life to a spacefaring, technologically advanced civilization. What we don’t know is whether that chance is something like 10^-3, 10^-20, 10^-50, or any number in between (or even worse). We know that life like humans arose once, at least, so the probability must be non-zero. But beyond that? We need data. And no amount of speculation or pronouncements will substitute for that information; we’ve got to find it to know. Anything else, despite what the New York Times claims, is nothing more than guesswork.